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May312015

Analysis: where are the lifeboats if global growth starts to sink?

A recent article in the UK Telegraph focuses on the issue of the slowing global economy and asks, what options are left if the current shallow recovery fails?

The author points out that many international organizations have been reassessing and revising downward their estimates for near-term growth; the United Nations is the latest, cutting its 2015 forecast down to 2.8%. That is "only slightly above the 2.5% rate that used to be regarded as a recession for the international system as a whole." And several major economies, including China, are facing headwinds this summer.

I encourage you to look at the detailed data and analysis for yourself, but the message seems clear: the global economy has a thin margin protecting it against any economic shock. And with governments and central banks still addressing the aftermath of the 2008 recession, there are few easy options left.

Which should lead us to expand our efforts to look for new ways to build economic growth.

Image source: The Telegraph

-- Bruno Roche

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